債王沽債 [轉載]

[font=新細明體]美元反彈，股市牛皮。不過日本打算將核危機升為最高級別的[/font][font=Times New Roman]7[/font][font=新細明體]級，令日股下跌，日圓反彈，日股最新報跌[/font][font=Times New Roman]175[/font][font=新細明體]點，跌幅[/font][font=Times New Roman]1.8%[/font][font=新細明體]。美元兌日圓回落到[/font][font=Times New Roman]84.17[/font][font=新細明體]圓的水平。[/font][color=#000000]
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[color=#000000][font=新細明體]美股美企第一季業績公佈潮即將展開，投資者普遍對美企首季乖表現樂觀，但亦擔心食品、能源及原材料價格上漲會對財報狀況造成一些影響。美股先升後回，三大指數個別發展，杜指靠穩，其餘的就下跌，交投仍然清淡。杜指微升[/font][font=Times New Roman]1[/font][font=新細明體]點，收[/font][font=Times New Roman]12381[/font][font=新細明體]點，標普[/font][font=Times New Roman]500[/font][font=新細明體]指數挫[/font][font=Times New Roman]4[/font][font=新細明體]點，造[/font][font=Times New Roman]1324[/font][font=新細明體]點。杜指期貨最新報[/font][font=Times New Roman]12292[/font][font=新細明體]點，較現貨低水[/font][font=Times New Roman]89[/font][font=新細明體]點。[/font][/color]
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[color=#000000][font=新細明體]港股美國預託證券下挫，[/font][font=Times New Roman]ADR[/font][font=新細明體]港比指數報[/font][font=Times New Roman]24061[/font][font=新細明體]點，比香港收市低[/font][font=Times New Roman]242[/font][font=新細明體]點。匯控收[/font][font=Times New Roman]83.94[/font][font=新細明體]元，比香港低[/font][font=Times New Roman]0.5%[/font][font=新細明體]，中移動收[/font][font=Times New Roman]72.78[/font][font=新細明體]元，比香港低[/font][font=Times New Roman]0.8%[/font][font=新細明體]。[/font][/color]
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[color=#000000][font=新細明體]國際貨幣基金會[/font][font=Times New Roman](IMF)[/font][font=新細明體]在《世界經濟展望》[/font][font=Times New Roman](World Economic Outlook)[/font][font=新細明體]報告，原油供應中斷風險和歐洲主權債務危機可能蔓延至歐洲核心經濟體，是全球經濟復蘇面臨的兩大威脅。[/font][font=Times New Roman]IMF[/font][font=新細明體]指，除非美國開始認真地整頓其財政狀況，中國允許人民幣加速升值，且歐洲和新興經濟體實施廣泛的經濟結構調整，否則實現全球經濟再平衡的努力將難以取得進展，全球經濟復蘇的根基將愈加脆弱，預計今年全球經濟增速應該會放緩至[/font][font=Times New Roman]4.4%[/font][font=新細明體]。[/font][/color]


[color=#000000][font=新細明體]至於美國，[/font][font=Times New Roman]IMF[/font][font=新細明體]認為美國政府尤其需要起草一份可信的中期債務和赤字削減計畫，不然的話，美國國債價格將會下跌，相對地孳息率可能會上漲[/font][font=Times New Roman]([/font][font=新細明體]即市場利息上升[/font][font=Times New Roman])[/font][font=新細明體]，影響全球金融系統的穩定。[/font][font=Times New Roman]IMF[/font][font=新細明體]將美國今年經濟增長預測由[/font][font=Times New Roman]3%[/font][font=新細明體]下調至[/font][font=Times New Roman]2.8%[/font][font=新細明體]，日本則由[/font][font=Times New Roman]1.6%[/font][font=新細明體]下調至[/font][font=Times New Roman]1.4%[/font][font=新細明體]。[/font][/color]
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[color=#000000][font=新細明體]全球經濟可能會放緩，加上原油供應中斷的機會減少，資金由石油黃金及大大宗商品市場回流到較風險高的股票。油價回落[/font][font=Times New Roman]1%[/font][font=新細明體]，最新報每桶[/font][font=Times New Roman]112[/font][font=新細明體]美元。黃金每安士亦跌至[/font][font=Times New Roman]1458[/font][font=新細明體]美元。[/font][/color]
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[color=#000000][font=新細明體]美鋁[/font][font=Times New Roman](Alcoa) [/font][font=新細明體]昨日收市後公佈業績，拉開業績公佈潮序幕。美鋁第一季度收入飆升[/font][font=Times New Roman]22%[/font][font=新細明體]，至[/font][font=Times New Roman]59.6[/font][font=新細明體]億美元，利潤[/font][font=Times New Roman]3[/font][font=新細明體]億美元。扭虧為盈，但收入略低於市場預期的[/font][font=Times New Roman]61[/font][font=新細明體]億美元。股價偏軟，收市後交易跌了[/font][font=Times New Roman]3%[/font][font=新細明體]。美股業績升了幾季，預期較高，又進入唔係咁易優於預期的境界。[/font][/color]
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[font=新細明體]美元昨日反彈。美國國會兩大黨最終就預算案爭議達成共識，令聯邦政府暫時免卻關門風險，美元借勢反彈。但市場仍然是中長線睇淡美元、睇淡美債。[/font][/color]


[font=新細明體][color=#000000]聯儲局理事們繼續走出來挺聯儲局主席伯南克的寬鬆政策，[font=新細明體][size=12pt]伯南克的死黨、聯儲局副主席耶倫([/size][/font]Janet Yellen)[font=新細明體][size=12pt]話，油價和食品價格上升，只是推升了外圍的通脹，不應因而終止刺激政策[/size][/font]; 而油價升影響消費，更增加了經濟風險，所以應繼續推行寬鬆政策。[/color][/font]
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[font=新細明體]大行亦睇到聯儲局無意收緊美元供應，所以見到美元反彈，都唔敢睇好。彭博調查了過去半年測美元走勢最準的五家銀行，發覺佢地都認為美國會較遲收緊銀根，所以預料美元未來一季會持續弱勢。其中連續兩季預測美元走勢最準確的第一位富國銀行和第二位聖佐治銀行預言，到今季結朿時，美元只是橫行，不會向上。其餘三間銀行更預期美元會延續跌勢。[/font][/color]
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[font=新細明體]全球最大的債券基金[/font][font=Times New Roman]PIMCO[/font][font=新細明體]睇淡美債變本加厲，旗下[/font][font=Times New Roman]Total Return Fund[/font][font=新細明體]在[/font][font=Times New Roman]2[/font][font=新細明體]月把持有的美債清倉後，到[/font][font=Times New Roman]3[/font][font=新細明體]月再進一步，沽空美債至佔總資產[/font][font=Times New Roman]-3%[/font][font=新細明體]，[/font][font=Times New Roman]PIMCO[/font][font=新細明體]的投資總監格羅斯預期，到[/font][font=Times New Roman]6[/font][font=新細明體]月[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE2[/font][font=新細明體]結朿後，美債失去了聯儲局這個大買家，價格會進一步下跌[/font][font=Times New Roman]([/font][font=新細明體]現時新發行的三分之二長債是由聯儲局買入，頂住價格[/font][font=Times New Roman])[/font][font=新細明體]，所以唔止清倉，仲要調轉頭沽。[/font][/color]


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[font=新細明體]較多人預期到[/font][font=Times New Roman]6[/font][font=新細明體]月[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE2([/font][font=新細明體]第二輪量化寬鬆[/font][font=Times New Roman])[/font][font=新細明體]到期後，將不至於推[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE3[/font][font=新細明體]，但聯儲局亦不會沽出手持債券收緊銀根。例如美林美銀就認為，[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE2[/font][font=新細明體]到期會對股價和債價有一個細小而短暫的負面影響，聯儲局會議紀錄顯示，只有少量儲局理事想在今年退市，只在就業快速增長或通脹預期失控時，才會在今年加息。不過另一方面，亦只有在較例外的情況下才會有[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE3[/font][font=新細明體]，主要是油價和商品價格大升，再把經濟推向衰退邊緣，那時擔心的是通縮而非通脹，就會逼使聯儲局再推[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE3[/font][font=新細明體]。[/font][/color]
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[font=新細明體]但美林對美債亦唔會太悲觀，認為[/font][font=Times New Roman]QE2[/font][font=新細明體]到期後，只要債價跌少少，孳息率升一點，就會吸引新興國家央行、美國的保守投資者和環球避險投資者入場買美債，所以美債不會跌得太過份，美元亦不致走得太弱。[/font][/color]
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[font=新細明體][color=#000000]陸羽仁[/color][/font]
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[font=新細明體][color=#000000]來源 :頭條網[/color][/font]

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